US-China Tariff War and Effects on Made in Italy: Macroeconomic-Financial Analysis
US Tariffs and Made in Italy
US Tariffs: The Impact of Donald Trump's Trade Policy on the Global Economy
The announcement by President Donald Trump on the evening of April 2, 2024, regarding the imposition of new customs tariffs of 20% on European products, marks a new chapter in the trade war between the United States and international partners. With the aim of protecting the American economy and reducing the trade deficit, the US directly targets EU exports, generating ripple effects on the entire global economic system.
According to estimates from the European Commission, the tariffs will impact 70% of EU exports, with the United States expected to collect approximately €81 billion. Among the European countries most affected is Italy, which is heavily reliant on its high-quality agri-food and manufacturing exports.
China's Response: Symmetrical Countermeasures and Trade Tensions
China, the United States' primary commercial rival, promptly reacted by imposing retaliatory tariffs on hundreds of American products, escalating tensions between the two economic superpowers. This symmetrical strategy has triggered a genuine global trade war, with significant effects on global GDP growth, international supply chains, and financial markets.
The revaluation of the dollar against the yuan has contributed to making US exports less competitive, while China has adopted a policy of diversifying its trade relationships, strengthening ties with other emerging and established markets.
Effects on Europe: Uncertainty and Risk of Stagnation
The European economy faces indirect consequences of the trade war. US tariffs affect key sectors of European exports, such as agri-food, mechanical goods, and luxury items. These measures come at a delicate time for the continent, already engaged in energy transition, managing post-pandemic public debt, and maintaining internal demand.
The reduced competitiveness of European products in the US market could lead to a slowdown in economic growth, particularly in export-oriented countries like Germany, France, and Italy. Currency instability and regulatory uncertainty make the operational environment more complex for exporting companies.
Made in Italy Under Pressure: Economic Impact of US Tariffs on Italy
The United States is Italy's third-largest trading partner, after Germany and France. In 2024, Italian exports to the US reached €73 billion, consistently growing since 2013. The tariffs imposed by the Trump administration represent a severe blow to numerous strategic sectors of Made in Italy, particularly in agri-food, PDO and PGI products, high value-added goods, and non-relocatable production.
Tariffs on Italian Cheese: A Crisis for the Dairy Industry
Italy is the world's largest exporter of cheese to the United States, with 40,867 tons sold in 2024, valued at €486 million. The new tariffs heavily penalize iconic Made in Italy products:
Parmigiano Reggiano, which accounts for 22.5% of total export share directed to the US, will experience a price hike leading to a cost of $59/kg, making it less accessible to American consumers and disadvantaging competition against imitations like "parmesan."
Extra Virgin Olive Oil: A Strategic Sector in Difficulty
The United States is the leading foreign market for Italian extra virgin olive oil, with an export value of €1.1 billion out of a total of €3 billion. Customs tariffs could push American consumers towards cheaper alternatives, such as locally produced seed oils, putting Italian companies focused on quality and health at risk.
Tomatoes and Preserves: 32% Tariffs and Risk of Competitiveness Loss
15% of Italian tomato preserves exports outside the EU are directed to the US. With tariffs rising from 12% to 32%, products like peeled tomatoes, puree, and ready-to-use pulp risk becoming less competitive than American Californian products, favoring Italian sounding and penalizing Italian companies. The sector accounts for €3 billion abroad, out of a total of €5.5 billion.
Wine and Spirits: Tariffs and Risk of Export Contraction
The Italian wine and spirits sector is worth over €2 billion in exports to the US and employs approximately 450,000 workers. Between 2018 and 2021, previous tariffs led to a 41% drop in Italian liquor exports. The new customs package risks replicating this scenario, hitting a crucial sector for the Italian economy, especially during vintage changes and stock renewals.
PDO Hams: Parma and San Daniele at Risk
In 2024, 800,000 Parma hams were exported to the United States, generating €100 million in revenue. These are Protected Designation of Origin products, whose production is only possible in specific areas. Tariffs threaten the entire supply chain of Italian ham, which cannot be relocated, with severe consequences on employment and territorial development.
The Future of Made in Italy Between Diplomacy and Industrial Strategy
The tariff policy imposed by the Trump administration has destabilized international trade balances, fueling tensions, speculation, and uncertainty in global markets. Italy, with its strong export orientation, is among the most vulnerable countries.
To defend Made in Italy, it is necessary to:
Strengthen European trade diplomacy with transparent and stable negotiations;
Diversify target markets, focusing on Asia, the Middle East, and South America;
Enhance PDO and PGI brands through promotional campaigns and legal protection;
Invest in digitalization and international e-commerce to maintain direct contact with end consumers.
In conclusion, US tariffs on Made in Italy risk compromising decades of investment, innovation, and positioning in foreign markets. Only a cohesive, structured, and forward-looking response can protect the competitiveness of Italian excellence worldwide.
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